3 becomes 1: welcome to the US Power grid

Many of you have probably been reading about the benefits of a High-Temperature Superconductor (HTS) in the media recently. Apparently it was announced today by the American Superconductor Corporation (AMSC) that they have been chosen for the Tres Amigas Project which will connect all three major electricity grids in the US as well as provide pipe to bring in new non-dispatchable renewables onto the newly formed national grid.

Apparently scheduled for completion in 2014, it sounds like a pretty exciting prospect that should bring greater reliability and competition to the grid as well as provide a more effective environment for renewable sources to sell intermittent power into. Looking at AMSC’s chart, however, it appears this news was not a surprise as there was effectively no movement in the stock price today although maybe we’ll see a jump tomorrow as the announcement was late in the day.

References:

Superconductor Electricity Pipelines to be Adopted for America's First Renewable Energy Market Hub | Yahoo Finance

American Superconductor to Provide Hardware for Tres Amigas Project | Green Energy Reporter

The Tres Amigas Project: America's Renewable Energy Hub? | Fast Company

An interesting investment or a foolish gamble

If you like to try your luck at the casinos in Vegas and also secretly hope to see a major green revolution take place in the near term you can take a position on both today. How? Buy ZENN stock (ZNNMF). ZENN, for those of you who don’t know, has been in the business of making zero-emissions vehicles but recently decided to change tact and now is focusing exclusively on an electric drive train that they plan on selling to Ford, Toyota and other major manufacturers. The ace up their sleeve? Their intimate relationship with EEStor a company that few know well but who is making some fairly audacious claims in the ultra-capacitor marketplace.

An “ultra-capacitor” is similar to battery technology in that it stores energy but rather than using a chemical process it stores electricity on it’s surface. A capacitor (even an ultra-capacitor) is typically characterised as possessing very high power-density (aka, power can be moved into and deployed out of very quickly) but very low energy-density (aka, stored energy on a per mass or per volume basis is very low). See the chart below to see this historic relationship with other technologies. It’s true that ultra capacitors are gaining greater energy density through nano-technologies but what EEStor is claiming would be a huge jump from anything else in the market. If believed, the EEStor technology would not only revolutionise motive transport but also the whole power industry (peak shaving, reduced spinning reserve, more economic and new power switching and quality devices, etc.)

EEStor’s ownership structure is not completely clear but it appears the two biggest holders are Kleiner Perkins (20%) and ZENN (12%). Even without the ownership stake it appears ZENN’s fate is highly correlated with EEStor’s. Admittedly I’d prefer to take the gamble directly with EEStor but as that option isn’t available to the public I think I’ll take a punt on ZENN. What do you think? Smart bet? Interesting gamble? Easy way to lose money?

Here’s a few links to help you decide:

[a few over-enthusiastic investors]  [news on ZENN’s April run-up on prices]

[more news on ZENN]  [more news on EEStor]

A “non-electric” plug-in hybrid?

Kleiner Perkins hints at plug-in car launch this week and they have said it “it is not an electric vehicle” and then said “do not think batteries”. My guess? It IS an electric car but it doesn’t use batteries. I mean what other kind of propulsion system would the car run on? It’s really annoying but modern vernacular confuses automotive propulsion with energy storage with regularity. For instance, a “hydrogen fuel cell” car IS an electric car … it just uses H2 as is energy storage and a fuel cell to convert it to electricity.

My guess is that this car in fact does use a fuel cell technology -- possibly hydrogen fuel cell -- and the real breakthrough is that they’ve come up with a more efficient way of using on-board electrolysis to make hydrogen gas (or whatever gas the fuel cell consumes). If that is true and the economics of this storage system compete with battery technology that could have a huge impact on the automotive field.

FERC develops smart grid transmission system

FERC took a step yesterday regarding the development of a smart electric transmission system. The Smart Grid Policy Statement sets priorities for work on development of standards that could help make such a system more reliable.

FERC set out policy for recovery of costs by utilities that act early to adopt smart grid technology. FERC got lots of comments from interested groups (70) that shows broad support for a smart grid policy.

FERC wants these early development standards: (a) ensure the cyber-security of the grid; (b) provide two-way communications among regional market operators, utilities, service providers and consumers; (c) ensure that power system operators have equipment that allows them to operate reliably by monitoring their own systems as well as neighboring systems that affect them; and (d) coordinate the integration into the power system of emerging technologies such as renewable resources, demand response resources, electricity storage facilities and electric transportation systems.

One interesting side note, FERC said that it will not interfere with any state's ability to adopt whatever advanced metering or demand response program it chooses.

This policy will take effect 60 days after publication in the Federal Register. I can send the entire policy if people want to read it just let me know.

So my question is what group emerges as smart grid leaders? Will it be the technology companies or will it be utility/energy companies? Here are some of the smart grid stocks I am currently following: CSCO, IBM, GOOG, COMV, DGII, ELON, ESE, GE, ITRI, TLVT, and RUGGF.

German Power Market to Shrink in 2009 !!

The power market in Germany, Europe’s biggest, probably will shrink in 2009, for the first time since Enron Corp. failed in 2001 as utilities reduce risks and fewer banks trade energy, raising concerns about exaggerated prices.

E.ON AG, the nation’s biggest utility, has one financial company among its top trading partners, down from four a year ago, after Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. collapsed in September and UBS AG exited the commodities business in October. Stockholm-based Vattenfall AB, the Nordic region’s largest utility, cut its list to three banks from six.

German power trading may contract 17 percent this year from 2008’s record, forecasts Kai Seela, head of power and emissions at Vattenfall. The decline may reduce competition among traders, meaning energy users from ThyssenKrupp AG to Daimler AG may struggle to get the best offers and lowest power costs, even after wholesale prices fell 45 percent from July’s peak.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aAOIVnjDWqGA&refer=news